{ "schema": 1, "module": "6139-annual", "modelVersion": "6139-year-0.1.0-proposed", "weatherId": "noaa-ghcnd-phl-2025-pinned-20261002", "prediction": "", "offset": 2, "trials": [ { "id": "synthetic-spring-temperature-trial", "createdAt": "2025-02-15T12:00:00.000Z", "offset": 2, "prediction": "SYNTHETIC PRACTICE — With the same precipitation and teaching parameters, +2 °C might advance the spring bud threshold. Reduced qualifying cold days could oppose this; the real tree and its thresholds remain unknown.", "revisions": [ { "at": "2025-04-15T12:00:00.000Z", "text": "SYNTHETIC PRACTICE — The model reaches its bud threshold on 2025-03-16 at baseline and 2025-03-11 with +2 °C. This supports a statement about these equations, not actual red-maple budburst. Weather history and a measured same-tree event are still needed." }, { "at": "2025-05-15T12:00:00.000Z", "text": "SYNTHETIC PRACTICE — A simulated peer challenges my simple \"warmer means earlier\" claim: chilling, day length and parameter choices also matter. No real peer feedback was collected. I would compare separately recorded local tree events before generalizing." } ] }, { "id": "synthetic-water-temperature-trial", "createdAt": "2025-05-15T12:00:00.000Z", "offset": 2, "prediction": "SYNTHETIC PRACTICE — Keeping rainfall fixed, warmer temperatures might reduce summer root-zone water and increase the delayed water-limitation index. Rain will not necessarily erase a memory effect immediately.", "revisions": [ { "at": "2025-08-15T12:00:00.000Z", "text": "SYNTHETIC PRACTICE — The model has rainfall, capped infiltration, drainage and temperature-dependent loss. I should trace a sequence of days rather than read one leaf image as soil moisture; irrigation and local soil are absent, so a real-field difference need not falsify temperature physics alone." } ] }, { "id": "synthetic-autumn-temperature-trial", "createdAt": "2025-09-15T12:00:00.000Z", "offset": 2, "prediction": "SYNTHETIC PRACTICE — A +2 °C scenario might delay color progression, but the date and day-length driver remain unchanged. One colored-leaf image cannot isolate temperature from water, species or other causes.", "revisions": [ { "at": "2025-11-15T12:00:00.000Z", "text": "SYNTHETIC PRACTICE — Autumn trigger dates are 2025-09-21 and 2025-09-21; equal starts are possible because the trigger uses the same photoperiod. Later color amounts can still differ. This revises a \"all seasonal dates shift\" assumption; no actual student reasoning gain is demonstrated." }, { "at": "2025-12-15T12:00:00.000Z", "text": "SYNTHETIC PRACTICE — To address climate rather than one year's weather, I need comparable records across multiple years and identified plants. A future case without AI should test whether I can distinguish observation, model and an untested hypothesis independently." } ] } ], "observations": [ { "id": "synthetic-visit-2025-01-15", "createdAt": "2025-01-15T12:00:00.000Z", "date": "2025-01-15", "tree": "SYNTHETIC_PRACTICE_NO_REAL_TREE", "buds": "no", "leaves": "no", "color": "no", "falling": "no", "evidence": "SYNTHETIC PRACTICE — Read the authored model on 2025-01-15: stage dormant; canopy 0%; color proxy 0%. These are generated practice cues, not a photograph or a real tree observation. monthly-practice.", "interpretation": "SYNTHETIC PRACTICE — What could you actually see on a dormant branch, and which internal state remains inferred? Root-zone water 119.4 mm and stress 0 are model outputs; they cannot be inferred as measurements from visible leaves.", "photoReference": "" }, { "id": "synthetic-visit-2025-02-15", "createdAt": "2025-02-15T12:00:00.000Z", "date": "2025-02-15", "tree": "SYNTHETIC_PRACTICE_NO_REAL_TREE", "buds": "no", "leaves": "no", "color": "no", "falling": "no", "evidence": "SYNTHETIC PRACTICE — Read the authored model on 2025-02-15: stage dormant; canopy 0%; color proxy 0%. These are generated practice cues, not a photograph or a real tree observation. monthly-practice.", "interpretation": "SYNTHETIC PRACTICE — What could you actually see on a dormant branch, and which internal state remains inferred? Root-zone water 119.8 mm and stress 0 are model outputs; they cannot be inferred as measurements from visible leaves.", "photoReference": "" }, { "id": "synthetic-visit-2025-02-16", "createdAt": "2025-02-16T12:00:00.000Z", "date": "2025-02-16", "tree": "SYNTHETIC_PRACTICE_NO_REAL_TREE", "buds": "no", "leaves": "no", "color": "no", "falling": "no", "evidence": "SYNTHETIC PRACTICE — Read the authored model on 2025-02-16: stage dormant; canopy 0%; color proxy 0%. These are generated practice cues, not a photograph or a real tree observation. maximum-recorded-fastest-two-minute-wind.", "interpretation": "SYNTHETIC PRACTICE — What could you actually see on a dormant branch, and which internal state remains inferred? Root-zone water 119.6 mm and stress 0 are model outputs; they cannot be inferred as measurements from visible leaves.", "photoReference": "" }, { "id": "synthetic-visit-2025-03-05", "createdAt": "2025-03-05T12:00:00.000Z", "date": "2025-03-05", "tree": "SYNTHETIC_PRACTICE_NO_REAL_TREE", "buds": "no", "leaves": "no", "color": "no", "falling": "no", "evidence": "SYNTHETIC PRACTICE — Read the authored model on 2025-03-05: stage dormant; canopy 0%; color proxy 0%. These are generated practice cues, not a photograph or a real tree observation. maximum-recorded-daily-precipitation.", "interpretation": "SYNTHETIC PRACTICE — Which earlier weather days, rather than today alone, contributed to this modeled spring event? Root-zone water 119.6 mm and stress 0 are model outputs; they cannot be inferred as measurements from visible leaves.", "photoReference": "" }, { "id": "synthetic-visit-2025-03-15", "createdAt": "2025-03-15T12:00:00.000Z", "date": "2025-03-15", "tree": "SYNTHETIC_PRACTICE_NO_REAL_TREE", "buds": "no", "leaves": "no", "color": "no", "falling": "no", "evidence": "SYNTHETIC PRACTICE — Read the authored model on 2025-03-15: stage dormant; canopy 0%; color proxy 0%. These are generated practice cues, not a photograph or a real tree observation. monthly-practice.", "interpretation": "SYNTHETIC PRACTICE — Which earlier weather days, rather than today alone, contributed to this modeled spring event? Root-zone water 115.1 mm and stress 0 are model outputs; they cannot be inferred as measurements from visible leaves.", "photoReference": "" }, { "id": "synthetic-visit-2025-03-16", "createdAt": "2025-03-16T12:00:00.000Z", "date": "2025-03-16", "tree": "SYNTHETIC_PRACTICE_NO_REAL_TREE", "buds": "uncertain", "leaves": "no", "color": "no", "falling": "no", "evidence": "SYNTHETIC PRACTICE — Read the authored model on 2025-03-16: stage leaves expanding; canopy 2.8%; color proxy 0%. These are generated practice cues, not a photograph or a real tree observation. model-bud-threshold.", "interpretation": "SYNTHETIC PRACTICE — Which earlier weather days, rather than today alone, contributed to this modeled spring event? Root-zone water 119.4 mm and stress 0 are model outputs; they cannot be inferred as measurements from visible leaves.", "photoReference": "" }, { "id": "synthetic-visit-2025-04-15", "createdAt": "2025-04-15T12:00:00.000Z", "date": "2025-04-15", "tree": "SYNTHETIC_PRACTICE_NO_REAL_TREE", "buds": "no", "leaves": "yes", "color": "no", "falling": "no", "evidence": "SYNTHETIC PRACTICE — Read the authored model on 2025-04-15: stage leafed; canopy 100%; color proxy 0%. These are generated practice cues, not a photograph or a real tree observation. monthly-practice.", "interpretation": "SYNTHETIC PRACTICE — Which earlier weather days, rather than today alone, contributed to this modeled spring event? Root-zone water 107.9 mm and stress 0 are model outputs; they cannot be inferred as measurements from visible leaves.", "photoReference": "" }, { "id": "synthetic-visit-2025-05-15", "createdAt": "2025-05-15T12:00:00.000Z", "date": "2025-05-15", "tree": "SYNTHETIC_PRACTICE_NO_REAL_TREE", "buds": "no", "leaves": "yes", "color": "no", "falling": "no", "evidence": "SYNTHETIC PRACTICE — Read the authored model on 2025-05-15: stage leafed; canopy 100%; color proxy 0%. These are generated practice cues, not a photograph or a real tree observation. monthly-practice.", "interpretation": "SYNTHETIC PRACTICE — Can rain increase root water while the delayed stress index still remains high? What would a field visit fail to measure? Root-zone water 50.7 mm and stress 0.321 are model outputs; they cannot be inferred as measurements from visible leaves.", "photoReference": "" }, { "id": "synthetic-visit-2025-06-15", "createdAt": "2025-06-15T12:00:00.000Z", "date": "2025-06-15", "tree": "SYNTHETIC_PRACTICE_NO_REAL_TREE", "buds": "no", "leaves": "yes", "color": "no", "falling": "no", "evidence": "SYNTHETIC PRACTICE — Read the authored model on 2025-06-15: stage leafed; canopy 100%; color proxy 0%. These are generated practice cues, not a photograph or a real tree observation. monthly-practice.", "interpretation": "SYNTHETIC PRACTICE — Can rain increase root water while the delayed stress index still remains high? What would a field visit fail to measure? Root-zone water 38.8 mm and stress 0.223 are model outputs; they cannot be inferred as measurements from visible leaves.", "photoReference": "" }, { "id": "synthetic-visit-2025-06-24", "createdAt": "2025-06-24T12:00:00.000Z", "date": "2025-06-24", "tree": "SYNTHETIC_PRACTICE_NO_REAL_TREE", "buds": "no", "leaves": "yes", "color": "no", "falling": "no", "evidence": "SYNTHETIC PRACTICE — Read the authored model on 2025-06-24: stage leafed; canopy 100%; color proxy 0%. These are generated practice cues, not a photograph or a real tree observation. maximum-recorded-daily-temperature.", "interpretation": "SYNTHETIC PRACTICE — Can rain increase root water while the delayed stress index still remains high? What would a field visit fail to measure? Root-zone water 21.4 mm and stress 0.428 are model outputs; they cannot be inferred as measurements from visible leaves.", "photoReference": "" }, { "id": "synthetic-visit-2025-07-15", "createdAt": "2025-07-15T12:00:00.000Z", "date": "2025-07-15", "tree": "SYNTHETIC_PRACTICE_NO_REAL_TREE", "buds": "not observed", "leaves": "not observed", "color": "not observed", "falling": "not observed", "evidence": "SYNTHETIC PRACTICE — A summer-handover gap is rehearsed. No real visit, photograph or plant event was observed. Do not convert this missing record to \"no\".", "interpretation": "SYNTHETIC PRACTICE — Can rain increase root water while the delayed stress index still remains high? What would a field visit fail to measure? Root-zone water 38.5 mm and stress 0.155 are model outputs; they cannot be inferred as measurements from visible leaves.", "photoReference": "" }, { "id": "synthetic-visit-2025-08-15", "createdAt": "2025-08-15T12:00:00.000Z", "date": "2025-08-15", "tree": "SYNTHETIC_PRACTICE_NO_REAL_TREE", "buds": "no", "leaves": "yes", "color": "no", "falling": "no", "evidence": "SYNTHETIC PRACTICE — Read the authored model on 2025-08-15: stage leafed; canopy 100%; color proxy 0%. These are generated practice cues, not a photograph or a real tree observation. monthly-practice.", "interpretation": "SYNTHETIC PRACTICE — Can rain increase root water while the delayed stress index still remains high? What would a field visit fail to measure? Root-zone water 10.1 mm and stress 0.751 are model outputs; they cannot be inferred as measurements from visible leaves.", "photoReference": "" }, { "id": "synthetic-visit-2025-08-16", "createdAt": "2025-08-16T12:00:00.000Z", "date": "2025-08-16", "tree": "SYNTHETIC_PRACTICE_NO_REAL_TREE", "buds": "no", "leaves": "yes", "color": "no", "falling": "no", "evidence": "SYNTHETIC PRACTICE — Read the authored model on 2025-08-16: stage leafed; canopy 100%; color proxy 0%. These are generated practice cues, not a photograph or a real tree observation. maximum-model-water-limitation.", "interpretation": "SYNTHETIC PRACTICE — Can rain increase root water while the delayed stress index still remains high? What would a field visit fail to measure? Root-zone water 9.2 mm and stress 0.769 are model outputs; they cannot be inferred as measurements from visible leaves.", "photoReference": "" }, { "id": "synthetic-visit-2025-08-17", "createdAt": "2025-08-17T12:00:00.000Z", "date": "2025-08-17", "tree": "SYNTHETIC_PRACTICE_NO_REAL_TREE", "buds": "no", "leaves": "yes", "color": "no", "falling": "no", "evidence": "SYNTHETIC PRACTICE — Read the authored model on 2025-08-17: stage leafed; canopy 100%; color proxy 0%. These are generated practice cues, not a photograph or a real tree observation. recorded-rain-after-peak-model-water-limitation.", "interpretation": "SYNTHETIC PRACTICE — Can rain increase root water while the delayed stress index still remains high? What would a field visit fail to measure? Root-zone water 35.5 mm and stress 0.679 are model outputs; they cannot be inferred as measurements from visible leaves.", "photoReference": "" }, { "id": "synthetic-visit-2025-09-15", "createdAt": "2025-09-15T12:00:00.000Z", "date": "2025-09-15", "tree": "SYNTHETIC_PRACTICE_NO_REAL_TREE", "buds": "no", "leaves": "yes", "color": "no", "falling": "no", "evidence": "SYNTHETIC PRACTICE — Read the authored model on 2025-09-15: stage leafed; canopy 100%; color proxy 0%. These are generated practice cues, not a photograph or a real tree observation. monthly-practice.", "interpretation": "SYNTHETIC PRACTICE — Can shorter day length and cooling give different explanations for leaf color? What comparison is still missing? Root-zone water 12 mm and stress 0.724 are model outputs; they cannot be inferred as measurements from visible leaves.", "photoReference": "" }, { "id": "synthetic-visit-2025-09-21", "createdAt": "2025-09-21T12:00:00.000Z", "date": "2025-09-21", "tree": "SYNTHETIC_PRACTICE_NO_REAL_TREE", "buds": "no", "leaves": "yes", "color": "no", "falling": "no", "evidence": "SYNTHETIC PRACTICE — Read the authored model on 2025-09-21: stage autumn transition; canopy 100%; color proxy 0%. These are generated practice cues, not a photograph or a real tree observation. model-autumn-start.", "interpretation": "SYNTHETIC PRACTICE — Can shorter day length and cooling give different explanations for leaf color? What comparison is still missing? Root-zone water 16.9 mm and stress 0.668 are model outputs; they cannot be inferred as measurements from visible leaves.", "photoReference": "" }, { "id": "synthetic-visit-2025-10-15", "createdAt": "2025-10-15T12:00:00.000Z", "date": "2025-10-15", "tree": "SYNTHETIC_PRACTICE_NO_REAL_TREE", "buds": "no", "leaves": "yes", "color": "yes", "falling": "uncertain", "evidence": "SYNTHETIC PRACTICE — Read the authored model on 2025-10-15: stage autumn transition; canopy 94.5%; color proxy 20.1%. These are generated practice cues, not a photograph or a real tree observation. monthly-practice.", "interpretation": "SYNTHETIC PRACTICE — Can shorter day length and cooling give different explanations for leaf color? What comparison is still missing? Root-zone water 24 mm and stress 0.562 are model outputs; they cannot be inferred as measurements from visible leaves.", "photoReference": "" }, { "id": "synthetic-visit-2025-11-15", "createdAt": "2025-11-15T12:00:00.000Z", "date": "2025-11-15", "tree": "SYNTHETIC_PRACTICE_NO_REAL_TREE", "buds": "no", "leaves": "no", "color": "no", "falling": "no", "evidence": "SYNTHETIC PRACTICE — Read the authored model on 2025-11-15: stage dormant; canopy 0%; color proxy 100%. These are generated practice cues, not a photograph or a real tree observation. monthly-practice.", "interpretation": "SYNTHETIC PRACTICE — Can shorter day length and cooling give different explanations for leaf color? What comparison is still missing? Root-zone water 58.5 mm and stress 0.054 are model outputs; they cannot be inferred as measurements from visible leaves.", "photoReference": "" }, { "id": "synthetic-visit-2025-12-14", "createdAt": "2025-12-14T12:00:00.000Z", "date": "2025-12-14", "tree": "SYNTHETIC_PRACTICE_NO_REAL_TREE", "buds": "no", "leaves": "no", "color": "no", "falling": "no", "evidence": "SYNTHETIC PRACTICE — Read the authored model on 2025-12-14: stage dormant; canopy 0%; color proxy 100%. These are generated practice cues, not a photograph or a real tree observation. maximum-recorded-new-snow-depth.", "interpretation": "SYNTHETIC PRACTICE — Can shorter day length and cooling give different explanations for leaf color? What comparison is still missing? Root-zone water 118.7 mm and stress 0 are model outputs; they cannot be inferred as measurements from visible leaves.", "photoReference": "" }, { "id": "synthetic-visit-2025-12-15", "createdAt": "2025-12-15T12:00:00.000Z", "date": "2025-12-15", "tree": "SYNTHETIC_PRACTICE_NO_REAL_TREE", "buds": "no", "leaves": "no", "color": "no", "falling": "no", "evidence": "SYNTHETIC PRACTICE — Read the authored model on 2025-12-15: stage dormant; canopy 0%; color proxy 100%. These are generated practice cues, not a photograph or a real tree observation. monthly-practice.", "interpretation": "SYNTHETIC PRACTICE — Can shorter day length and cooling give different explanations for leaf color? What comparison is still missing? Root-zone water 118.6 mm and stress 0 are model outputs; they cannot be inferred as measurements from visible leaves.", "photoReference": "" } ], "exportedAt": "2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z", "status": "proposed", "usage": "practice", "model": { "version": "6139-year-0.1.0-proposed", "calibrated": false, "parameters": { "capacityMm": 120, "initialWaterMm": 72, "initialSnowMm": 0, "infiltrationMmDay": 30, "snowMeltMmPerC": 3, "waterLimitationFraction": 0.45, "coolMinC": 0, "coolMaxC": 7, "coolDaysRequired": 45, "heatBaseC": 5, "budburstHeat": 80, "leafExpansionHeat": 120, "springDayHours": 10, "autumnDayHours": 12, "autumnCoolBaseC": 15, "autumnShortDayWeight": 4, "autumnScoreToFull": 300, "leafFallDelayDays": 14, "leafFallDurationDays": 40, "stressRiseDays": 3, "stressRecoveryDays": 5 }, "initialization": "2024-10-01 authored starting conditions; 92 warm-up days." }, "weather": { "id": "noaa-ghcnd-phl-2025-pinned-20261002", "kind": "station-observation", "retrieved": "2026-10-02", "station": { "id": "USW00013739", "name": "Philadelphia International Airport", "latitude": 39.8683, "longitude": -75.2311 }, "sourceUrl": "https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/ghcn/daily/all/USW00013739.dly", "sourceSha256": "881676c52055d60ca499dbb1c50fd025e3344b216fcc48c2e6d8c1d84c068cfc", "ghcndVersion": "3.35-upd-2026093018", "documentationUrl": "https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/ghcn/daily/readme.txt", "attribution": "NOAA NCEI GHCN-Daily, Menne et al. 2012, doi:10.7289/V5D21VHZ", "replayYear": 2025, "warmupStart": "2024-10-01", "replayStart": "2025-01-01", "replayEnd": "2025-12-31", "dateBasis": "NOAA daily station date labels; element reporting windows may differ. No hourly timestamps inferred.", "midpointBasis": "(Tmin + Tmax) / 2, derived temperature proxy; not a measured daily mean", "qualityPolicy": "Reject nonblank QFLAG, -9999, and presumed-zero P flags; preserve trace flags with recorded amount 0.", "missing2025": { "tminC": 0, "tmaxC": 0, "precipMm": 0, "snowfallMm": 0, "snowDepthMm": 0, "windMs": 0, "fastest2MinWindMs": 0 }, "rejectedOrMissingSelectedRecords": {}, "limits": [ "Airport observations are not tree-site measurements.", "Snowfall depth is not precipitation water equivalent.", "No humidity or radiation observations; wind is not adjusted to canopy height.", "No weather generator, forecast, or climate trend inference from this single year." ] }, "weatherDays": [ { "date": "2024-10-01", "tminC": 16.7, "tmaxC": 22.8, "precipMm": 0, "snowfallMm": 0, "snowDepthMm": 0, "windMs": 4.5, "fastest2MinWindMs": 7.2, "midpointC": 19.75, "tracePrecip": false, "traceSnow": false }, { "date": "2024-10-02", "tminC": 16.1, "tmaxC": 23.3, "precipMm": 0, "snowfallMm": 0, "snowDepthMm": 0, "windMs": 2.6, "fastest2MinWindMs": 6.3, "midpointC": 19.7, "tracePrecip": false, "traceSnow": false }, { "date": "2024-10-03", "tminC": 15.6, "tmaxC": 24.4, "precipMm": 0, "snowfallMm": 0, "snowDepthMm": 0, "windMs": 1.4, "fastest2MinWindMs": 5.8, "midpointC": 20, "tracePrecip": false, "traceSnow": false }, { "date": "2024-10-04", "tminC": 15, "tmaxC": 25, "precipMm": 0, "snowfallMm": 0, "snowDepthMm": 0, "windMs": 1.8, "fastest2MinWindMs": 5.4, "midpointC": 20, "tracePrecip": false, "traceSnow": false }, { "date": "2024-10-05", "tminC": 16.1, "tmaxC": 26.1, "precipMm": 0, "snowfallMm": 0, "snowDepthMm": 0, "windMs": 3.3, "fastest2MinWindMs": 7.6, "midpointC": 21.1, "tracePrecip": false, "traceSnow": false }, { "date": "2024-10-06", "tminC": 12.2, "tmaxC": 25, "precipMm": 0, "snowfallMm": 0, "snowDepthMm": 0, "windMs": 3.1, "fastest2MinWindMs": 6.7, "midpointC": 18.6, "tracePrecip": false, "traceSnow": false }, { "date": "2024-10-07", "tminC": 16.1, "tmaxC": 25.6, "precipMm": 0, "snowfallMm": 0, "snowDepthMm": 0, "windMs": 4.9, "fastest2MinWindMs": 8.9, "midpointC": 20.85, "tracePrecip": false, "traceSnow": false }, { "date": "2024-10-08", "tminC": 12.2, "tmaxC": 21.7, "precipMm": 0, "snowfallMm": 0, "snowDepthMm": 0, "windMs": 4, "fastest2MinWindMs": 6.7, "midpointC": 16.95, "tracePrecip": false, "traceSnow": false }, { "date": "2024-10-09", "tminC": 11.1, "tmaxC": 21.7, "precipMm": 0, "snowfallMm": 0, "snowDepthMm": 0, "windMs": 4, "fastest2MinWindMs": 8.9, "midpointC": 16.4, "tracePrecip": false, "traceSnow": false }, { "date": "2024-10-10", "tminC": 9.4, "tmaxC": 17.8, "precipMm": 0, "snowfallMm": 0, "snowDepthMm": 0, "windMs": 4.3, "fastest2MinWindMs": 8.9, "midpointC": 13.6, "tracePrecip": false, "traceSnow": false }, { "date": "2024-10-11", "tminC": 7.2, "tmaxC": 20.6, "precipMm": 0, "snowfallMm": 0, "snowDepthMm": 0, "windMs": 3.6, "fastest2MinWindMs": 7.2, "midpointC": 13.9, "tracePrecip": false, 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What comparison is still missing?", "realPlantEvidence": null }, { "month": "2025-12", "weatherKind": "station-observation", "stationMidpointMeanC": 1.6968, "precipitationMm": 85.2, "observationDate": "2025-12-15", "practiceStatus": "synthetic-model-reading", "baseline": { "date": "2025-12-15", "stage": "dormant", "rootWaterMm": 118.5796, "stressIndex": 0.0001, "canopyFraction": 0, "coloredFraction": 1, "springHeatDegreeDays": 1427.2 }, "warmer": { "date": "2025-12-15", "stage": "dormant", "rootWaterMm": 119.7872, "stressIndex": 0.0002, "canopyFraction": 0, "coloredFraction": 1, "springHeatDegreeDays": 1681.3 }, "baselineMonthlyMeanRootWaterMm": 118.056, "warmerMonthlyMeanRootWaterMm": 116.7788, "reasoningPrompt": "Can shorter day length and cooling give different explanations for leaf color? What comparison is still missing?", "realPlantEvidence": null } ], "comparisonTimeline": [ { "date": "2025-02-15", "action": "synthetic-prediction-committed", "trialId": "synthetic-spring-temperature-trial", "content": "SYNTHETIC PRACTICE — With the same precipitation and teaching parameters, +2 °C might advance the spring bud threshold. Reduced qualifying cold days could oppose this; the real tree and its thresholds remain unknown." }, { "date": "2025-04-15", "action": "synthetic-delayed-revisit-and-revision", "trialId": "synthetic-spring-temperature-trial", "content": "SYNTHETIC PRACTICE — The model reaches its bud threshold on 2025-03-16 at baseline and 2025-03-11 with +2 °C. This supports a statement about these equations, not actual red-maple budburst. Weather history and a measured same-tree event are still needed." }, { "date": "2025-05-15", "action": "synthetic-delayed-revisit-and-revision", "trialId": "synthetic-spring-temperature-trial", "content": "SYNTHETIC PRACTICE — A simulated peer challenges my simple \"warmer means earlier\" claim: chilling, day length and parameter choices also matter. No real peer feedback was collected. I would compare separately recorded local tree events before generalizing." }, { "date": "2025-05-15", "action": "synthetic-prediction-committed", "trialId": "synthetic-water-temperature-trial", "content": "SYNTHETIC PRACTICE — Keeping rainfall fixed, warmer temperatures might reduce summer root-zone water and increase the delayed water-limitation index. Rain will not necessarily erase a memory effect immediately." }, { "date": "2025-08-15", "action": "synthetic-delayed-revisit-and-revision", "trialId": "synthetic-water-temperature-trial", "content": "SYNTHETIC PRACTICE — The model has rainfall, capped infiltration, drainage and temperature-dependent loss. I should trace a sequence of days rather than read one leaf image as soil moisture; irrigation and local soil are absent, so a real-field difference need not falsify temperature physics alone." }, { "date": "2025-09-15", "action": "synthetic-prediction-committed", "trialId": "synthetic-autumn-temperature-trial", "content": "SYNTHETIC PRACTICE — A +2 °C scenario might delay color progression, but the date and day-length driver remain unchanged. One colored-leaf image cannot isolate temperature from water, species or other causes." }, { "date": "2025-11-15", "action": "synthetic-delayed-revisit-and-revision", "trialId": "synthetic-autumn-temperature-trial", "content": "SYNTHETIC PRACTICE — Autumn trigger dates are 2025-09-21 and 2025-09-21; equal starts are possible because the trigger uses the same photoperiod. Later color amounts can still differ. This revises a \"all seasonal dates shift\" assumption; no actual student reasoning gain is demonstrated." }, { "date": "2025-12-15", "action": "synthetic-delayed-revisit-and-revision", "trialId": "synthetic-autumn-temperature-trial", "content": "SYNTHETIC PRACTICE — To address climate rather than one year's weather, I need comparable records across multiple years and identified plants. A future case without AI should test whether I can distinguish observation, model and an untested hypothesis independently." } ], "delayedWaterCase": { "status": "model-reading-not-real-tree-recovery", "question": "Does root-zone recharge and delayed stress recovery happen on the same time scale?", "points": [ { "date": "2025-08-16", "stage": "leafed", "rootWaterMm": 9.2203, "stressIndex": 0.7686, "canopyFraction": 1, "coloredFraction": 0, "springHeatDegreeDays": 1427.2, "recordedPrecipitationMm": 0 }, { "date": "2025-08-17", "stage": "leafed", "rootWaterMm": 35.4818, "stressIndex": 0.6789, "canopyFraction": 1, "coloredFraction": 0, "springHeatDegreeDays": 1427.2, "recordedPrecipitationMm": 36.3 }, { "date": "2025-08-18", "stage": "leafed", "rootWaterMm": 34.6112, "stressIndex": 0.613, "canopyFraction": 1, "coloredFraction": 0, "springHeatDegreeDays": 1427.2, "recordedPrecipitationMm": 1.5 }, { "date": "2025-08-19", "stage": "leafed", "rootWaterMm": 32.4306, "stressIndex": 0.5669, "canopyFraction": 1, "coloredFraction": 0, "springHeatDegreeDays": 1427.2, "recordedPrecipitationMm": 0 }, { "date": "2025-08-20", "stage": "leafed", "rootWaterMm": 32.7905, "stressIndex": 0.5289, "canopyFraction": 1, "coloredFraction": 0, "springHeatDegreeDays": 1427.2, "recordedPrecipitationMm": 2.3 }, { "date": "2025-08-21", "stage": "leafed", "rootWaterMm": 32.0455, "stressIndex": 0.4998, "canopyFraction": 1, "coloredFraction": 0, "springHeatDegreeDays": 1427.2, "recordedPrecipitationMm": 1.3 }, { "date": "2025-08-22", "stage": "leafed", "rootWaterMm": 29.2071, "stressIndex": 0.4829, "canopyFraction": 1, "coloredFraction": 0, "springHeatDegreeDays": 1427.2, "recordedPrecipitationMm": 0 } ], "limit": "Constant full canopy in this summer model is not proof that a real tree had no visible change. Internal stress is a teaching index, not measured physiology." }, "summary": { "replayDays": 365, "warmupDays": 92, "precipitationMm": 899.7, "budThresholdBaseline": "2025-03-16", "budThresholdWarmer": "2025-03-11", "budThresholdShiftDays": -5, "autumnTriggerBaseline": "2025-09-21", "autumnTriggerWarmer": "2025-09-21", "annualMeanRootWaterBaselineMm": 68.4061, "annualMeanRootWaterWarmerMm": 66.6347, "waterBalanceMaxAbsoluteResidualMm": 1.4210854715202004e-14, "notebookComparisons": 3, "explanationRevisions": 5 }, "cardDraft": { "status": "synthetic-outline-not-holographic-card-implementation", "directObservation": [], "externalSource": [ { "source": "https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/ghcn/daily/all/USW00013739.dly", "role": "NOAA airport daily weather; not tree-site measurement", "id": "noaa-ghcnd-phl-2025-pinned-20261002" } ], "modelOutput": [ { "role": "Uncalibrated spring/root-water/autumn processes", "modelVersion": "6139-year-0.1.0-proposed" } ], "untestedHypothesis": [ { "trialId": "synthetic-spring-temperature-trial", "text": "SYNTHETIC PRACTICE — With the same precipitation and teaching parameters, +2 °C might advance the spring bud threshold. Reduced qualifying cold days could oppose this; the real tree and its thresholds remain unknown." }, { "trialId": "synthetic-water-temperature-trial", "text": "SYNTHETIC PRACTICE — Keeping rainfall fixed, warmer temperatures might reduce summer root-zone water and increase the delayed water-limitation index. Rain will not necessarily erase a memory effect immediately." }, { "trialId": "synthetic-autumn-temperature-trial", "text": "SYNTHETIC PRACTICE — A +2 °C scenario might delay color progression, but the date and day-length driver remain unchanged. One colored-leaf image cannot isolate temperature from water, species or other causes." } ], "peerReview": "not-collected; prose contains labeled synthetic prompts only" }, "readiness": { "facilitatedPrototypeReview": true, "fullYearClassroomDeployment": false, "learningEffectDemonstrated": false, "speciesForecastValidated": false, "gaps": [ { "id": "same-tree-identity", "status": "missing", "acceptance": "Teacher verifies one safe local tree and a persistent alias before field use." }, { "id": "photos-and-gps", "status": "missing", "acceptance": "2–3 real, consented same-view photos and teacher-approved site reference; protect precise locations." }, { "id": "same-year-field-comparison", "status": "missing", "acceptance": "Use real observations with matching calendar weather; 2026 visits do not validate a 2025 counterfactual." }, { "id": "species-calibration", "status": "missing", "acceptance": "Fit and held-out validate a stated species/site event; flowering/fruit are currently omitted." }, { "id": "revisit-notification", "status": "missing", "acceptance": "Opt-in reminders and teacher scheduling with a demonstrated delivery path." }, { "id": "classroom-archive", "status": "partial", "acceptance": "Browser JSON works, but annual classroom needs durable archive, backup owner and cross-device recovery." }, { "id": "peer-card-review", "status": "missing", "acceptance": "Persistent card with four evidence types, actual peer comment and append-only revision." }, { "id": "epistemic-ai-after-reasoning", "status": "partial", "acceptance": "Existing separate inquiry AI does not yet scaffold annual records after their own reasoning; no calls were made." }, { "id": "multi-year-transfer", "status": "missing", "acceptance": "A comparable second year and independent unfamiliar case without AI." }, { "id": "real-time-and-random-weather", "status": "missing", "acceptance": "Pinned historical replay exists; current-weather service and validated random generator do not." }, { "id": "weekly-and-summer-continuity", "status": "partial", "acceptance": "This rehearsal covers monthly/event examples; actual weekly visits and summer handover require people and records." }, { "id": "learning-evidence", "status": "not-collected", "acceptance": "Real learner reasoning, usability, pre/post or delayed transfer evidence; not clicks or synthetic revisions." } ] } } }