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Plant–weather simulation
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How do Field observation and the simulation connect?

Start with either one. Bring a question across, then come back to check it.

  1. 01 · FIELDNotice & predict

    Keep what you saw and explain what you think might happen.

  2. 02 · SIMULATIONTest one condition

    Replay the weather, change one thing and compare the model’s response.

  3. 03 · FIELDReturn & revise

    Look at the same plant again. Compare your evidence with your prediction.

Field records and model output are different evidence. Opening the other activity keeps this tab in place; it does not move your records.

Learn · Practice notebook

Plant–weather simulation

Replay Philadelphia’s recorded 2025 weather in a teaching model. Change the temperature and see when leaf buds open.

  • 15 min
  • Needs nothing
  • °C and °F
Replay 2025

Open Field observation alongside ↗ (opens in a new tab)Student & teacher guideSources

Practice notebook · illustrative records, separate from field work.

Weather stage

Weather in motion.

  • Observed · NOAA weather, AirNow
  • Model · a teaching model, not a measured plant
  • Art · plant and weather visuals
Compare
2025 · day 1 / 365
Red maple · reference plant
7.0°CCool · 45 °FMidpoint · 3.9–10.0°C 12:00 · visual cycle
AQI 34Good
Dormant
Reference plant · from Field observation

Date held · the sky keeps its own time; Less motion in the header stills it.

NOAA weather7.0 °C
Airport record · °C

Teaching model not measured

Root-zone water bucket
119.6 of 120 mm
Leaf canopy
0%

Airport record measured

Wind
7.3 m/s
How the data shapes this scene

One selected date links the airport weather, preliminary Philadelphia monitor AQI and teaching plant model. Backdrops, sky hours and particle motion are visual cues.

Linked values for 2025-01-01
ParameterSelected valueSourceWhat you see
Temperature3.9 °C to 10.0 °C; midpoint 7.0 °CNOAA airportCool edge light or warm heat waves; scene badge shows the scenario midpoint.
Rain0.0 mmNOAA airportLayered falling drops and small impacts. The daily total does not tell us when it rained.
Wind7.3 m/s mean; 14.8 m/s fastest 2-minuteNOAA airportStronger gust trails and leaf bending. Direction and gust timing are authored.
Snow0.0 mm new; 0.0 mm ground depthNOAA airportFalling flakes; retained ground cover follows model snow-water storage.
Day length9.2 hoursCalculatedLonger summer daylight and shorter winter daylight inside the visual cycle.
Air quality34 · Good · PM2.5-24hrAirNow preliminaryA category badge and optional abstract veil. AQI does not measure visible haze or plant injury.
Plant seasondormant; canopy 0.0 %; buds 0.0 %; expansion 0.0 %Teaching modelOpening and size follow canopy; amber tissue follows autumn color.
Autumncolored 0.0 %; fallen 0.0 %Teaching modelSeasonal amber tone and a smaller remaining canopy.
Root water119.6 mm; stress 0.0 %Teaching modelWet ground glow or dry soil marks, with the exact water meter beside the plant.
Snow & melt0.0 mm stored; 0.0 mm added; 0.0 mm meltTeaching modelPale ground cover and small melt ripples.
Water flows0.0 mm rain input; 0.0 mm runoff; 0.0 mm drainageTeaching modelWater input feeds the root store; flow intensity adds low ground ripples.
Water loss0.2 mm plant ET; 0.8 mm reference ETTeaching modelSparse rising vapour. Loss is accumulated by the daily model, not the background clock.
Seasonal memory24 cool days; 0.0 heat unitsTeaching modelAccumulated cooling and heat determine bud opening, rather than one warm frame.
Scenario & balance7.0 °C scenario midpoint; 0.000000 mm water residualTeaching modelScenario temperature drives thermal color; the residual checks the water balance.

AirNow historical files (opens in a new tab) · Data definitions (opens in a new tab). Missing AQI dates remain unknown. This is the 2025 archive, not current air quality.

Jan 1Dec 31
Speed
Paused · 2 days / secondDaily steps · recorded weather
About the data & plant model

Weather: NOAA Philadelphia airport daily records, 2025. The temperature curve is the midpoint of the recorded daily low and high. A warmer year changes the temperature only; recorded precipitation and wind stay as they were.

Root water, seasonal stage and canopy come from the existing uncalibrated teaching model. The plant is Field observation reference art driven by that generic model, not your individual. Rain, snow, lighting and movement illustrate a day; they do not reconstruct an hourly storm or forecast your plant. Humidity, cloud cover and wind direction are unknown.

Playback reads the saved daily trajectory. Changing speed or dragging the timeline does not rewrite your first look (A) or new idea (B).

How 2025 felt for this plant

How did 2025 sit for red maple?

Wide climate tolerance, low drought tolerance (1.84 of 5), very flood-tolerant, intermediate ozone sensitivity. In northeastern studies, moderate heat and drought delayed autumn; only days at 35 °C or more brought colour and leaf fall earlier.

Follows the Compare choice on the Weather stage: 2025 only, or +1 / +2 / +3 °C. Choose the plant there too.

In Philadelphia · High

Philadelphia’s second most common street tree: 10,172 of 151,726. Source: Philadelphia Parks & Recreation 2025

HeatDaily maximum air temperature while leaves are out

37 of 242 days strong stress or worse · 52 mild · worst Jun 24, 38.3 °C (101 °F)Suitable below 28 °C · mild from 28 °C · strong from 32 °C · damage risk from 35 °C · Lahr et al. 2018

Frost on new leavesDaily minimum temperature after modelled budburst, while leaves are new

0 of 19 days strong stress or worseSuitable above 0 °C · mild at 0 °C or less · strong at -2 °C or less · damage risk at -6 °C or less · Augspurger 2013

Root-zone waterRoot-zone water left in the teaching model’s 120 mm bucket

92 of 242 days strong stress or worse · 70 mild · worst Aug 15, 8% of the bucketSuitable above 40% of the bucket · mild at 40% or less · strong at 20% or less · damage risk at 10% or less · Granier et al. 2007

OzoneDaily 8-hour ozone, from AQI on days ozone defined it

6 of 126 days strong stress or worse · 28 mild · worst Jun 12, 84 ppbSuitable below 55 ppb · mild from 55 ppb · strong from 71 ppb · damage risk from 86 ppb · EPA AQI breakpoints

Jan 1

Dormant in the teaching model: the lens reads heat, water and ozone while leaves are out, and frost while they are new.

How the bands were set · sources and evidence grades

Grade A: measured on this species in a peer-reviewed study. B: agency or extension rating. C: inferred from related species or general physiology. Season windows use the generic deciduous teaching model, not this species’ own timing. Full citations: references.

Heat · Daily maximum air temperature while leaves are out
BandRangeReported responseGrade
Suitable< 28 °CWithin the range where photosynthesis holds up.A
Mild stress≥ 28 °CLeaf photosynthesis declines as leaf temperature rises from 26 °C (measured on red maple).A
Strong stress≥ 32 °CModerate heat-stress day. Such days delayed autumn dormancy in the northeastern US rather than advancing it.C
Damage risk≥ 35 °CHigh heat-stress day: linked to earlier colour and leaf drop; with dry soil, leaf scorch.C

Lahr et al. 2018, PLOS ONE (red maple photosynthesis vs leaf temperature) (opens in a new tab)Xie et al. 2015, PNAS (heat and drought vs autumn dormancy) (opens in a new tab)Xie et al. 2018, Agric For Meteorol (12 NE US species) (opens in a new tab)

Frost on new leaves · Daily minimum temperature after modelled budburst, while leaves are new
BandRangeReported responseGrade
Suitable> 0 °CNo frost on new growth.C
Mild stress≤ 0 °CLight frost: open flowers can be lost; little leaf loss (Augspurger’s frost criterion is −1.7 °C).C
Strong stress≤ -2 °CPart of the new leaves can die: emerging leaves of temperate trees lose half their tissue between −2 and −8 °C.C
Damage risk≤ -6 °CThe new flush can be killed; regrowing leaves delayed full canopy by 16–34 days after the 2007 freeze.C

Augspurger 2013, Ecology (spring frost after budburst) (opens in a new tab)Vitasse, Lenz & Körner 2014, Front Plant Sci (leaf-out frost LT50) (opens in a new tab)Augspurger 2009, Funct Ecol (refoliation after freeze) (opens in a new tab)

Root-zone water · Root-zone water left in the teaching model’s 120 mm bucket
BandRangeReported responseGrade
Suitable> 40%Enough root-zone water for normal stomatal opening.B
Mild stress≤ 40% Below 0.4 of extractable water, forests close stomata and cut transpiration; red maple “readily stops growing”.C
Strong stress≤ 20% Below 0.2, respiration also falls. Low drought tolerance (1.84 of 5).B
Damage risk≤ 10% Prolonged deep drought with heat: leaf scorch and some early drop. Moderate drought did not bring autumn earlier.C

Granier et al. 2007, Agric For Meteorol (REW 0.4 / 0.2) (opens in a new tab)Niinemets & Valladares 2006, Ecol Monogr (tolerance scores) (opens in a new tab)USDA Forest Service, Silvics of North America: red maple (opens in a new tab)Xie et al. 2018, Agric For Meteorol (12 NE US species) (opens in a new tab)

Ozone · Daily 8-hour ozone, from AQI on days ozone defined it
BandRangeReported responseGrade
Suitable< 55 ppbGood air-quality range for ozone.B
Mild stress≥ 55 ppbModerate ozone. Seasonal dose, not single days, drives effects; visible injury on maple is rare.A
Strong stress≥ 71 ppbAbove 70 ppb, the level the US standard sets to protect vegetation. Red maple seedlings lose 5% biomass at a season’s W126 of 20.8 ppm-h.A
Damage risk≥ 86 ppbUnhealthy ozone. Adds strongly to the seasonal dose; still rarely visible on red maple.C

EPA AQI breakpoints, 40 CFR 58 App. G (70 ppb also the vegetation standard) (opens in a new tab)Lee et al. 2022, Atmos Environ (ozone exposure-response, 16 US trees) (opens in a new tab)Schaub et al. 2003, Environ Pollut (maple rarely injured) (opens in a new tab)

Warmer-year notebook

The stage above works on its own. This notebook keeps your first look (A) and new idea (B) for a saved model run. Your visits to a real plant stay in Field observation.

Take a question back to Field observation ↗ Opens in a new tab
  1. 01First look (A)
  2. 02Compare a warmer year
  3. 03New idea (B)
  4. 04Return & download

Student & teacher guide · Browser storage only. Download a copy after each visit.

Start here · a worked observation example

Illustrative example, not a field record: “On the same lower branch, two leaves have yellow edges; buds were not checked; the surface soil looks dry.” This is evidence. “The tree may be under water stress” is an explanation, not a measurement.

Before running the model, predict a change and say what could challenge it. Afterward, check whether the dates, plant, soil, shade and weather are comparable. Yellowing may also reflect the season, nutrition or damage. No visible change is a valid finding.

A mismatch may come from a model assumption, missing site information, an uncertain measurement, or your explanation. The simulation is not an answer key. Return to the same plant to test a revised explanation.

First look (A) · before the model

Save a visit before seeing model output. Each saved visit keeps its own A/B pair and prediction. Link a return to an earlier visit before saving.

Record a new real-world visit · practice example

Name the real plant you will return to. The plant on the simulation stage is a reference, not your individual.

Quick observation checklist · optional

Choose the features you can actually observe. For flowers, shoots or seed heads, describe their state in what you noticed below. Leave unrelated leaf questions as not observed.

Status and intensity follow USA-NPN Nature’s Notebook (Denny et al. 2014; USA-NPN 2021): answer yes or no for each phenophase, then estimate how much of the potential canopy space it fills. Colored leaves include leaves turned yellow or brown by drought or other stress.

Plant condition · crown, leaf signs, photo greenness · optional

Classes simplified from the USFS crown-condition guide (Schomaker et al. 2007).

Visible leaf signs · tick what you actually saw

A sign is evidence to explain, not a diagnosis. Fine upper-surface stipple is the visible ozone symptom foresters score on sensitive plants (Smith et al. 2008), but insects and sun can mark leaves too; check other leaves before explaining it.

Canopy greenness from a photo

The PhenoCam network tracks leaf-out and autumn with the green share of each photo’s colour (Richardson et al. 2018). Photograph the same crown from the same spot, ideally on overcast days, and compare the series.

Higher GCC means a greener photo. Values differ between cameras; the timing of change is what compares (Sonnentag et al. 2012), so keep to your own series.
Optional measurements & site factors
Make it checkable · optional

Your return visit scores it with the Brier score, a proper scoring rule (Gneiting & Raftery 2007): 0 is perfect, 0.25 equals a coin flip. Honest confidence scores better than bold confidence.

Why these observation factors? · research & protocol
Inside the model & earlier notebook
2025 · 365 recorded daysNOAA · Philadelphia airportPlant model · proposed, uncalibrated

The weather is observed. The plant is a teaching model, not a measured or forecast plant. One year cannot establish a climate trend.

Inside the teaching model

Baseline on Jan 1, 2025 · dormant

Spring readiness

0% leaf expansion

24 qualifying cool days; 0 °C·days of spring heat. Illustrative bud threshold: 80.

Root-zone water

119.6/ 120 mm

Water limitation: 0% relative index. This is an estimate with delayed recovery, not a sensor reading.

Autumn transition

0% color progress

0% modeled leaf fall. Shorter days and cooling accumulate; leaf loss follows later.

Today’s water, step by step
Every millimeter is accounted for
Estimated rain / snow water input
0.00 / 0.00 mm
Snow melt / retained snow water
0.00 / 0.00 mm
Runoff / drainage
0.00 / 0.00 mm
Reference ET₀ / modeled loss
0.80 / 0.16 mm
Water balance residual
0.0e+0 mm

Rain/snow partition uses a daily temperature proxy. Observed snow depth is shown separately and is never added again as water.

What is assumed?

92 days from Oct–Dec 2024 initialize water and cooling history. Starting water is 72 mm; snow water is 0. These are assumptions, not field measurements.

Spring uses 45 cool days (0–7 °C), then heat above 5 °C with at least 10 hours of daylight. Bud opening requires 80 °C·days; leaf expansion takes another 120. Cool days are not measured chill hours.

Autumn begins below 12 hours of daylight after midsummer. Cooling and shorter days accumulate a teaching score; leaf fall is delayed by 14 days. This is not a fitted red-maple model.

Hargreaves reference ET uses temperature and calculated solar geometry. Soil freezing, irrigation, canopy interception, carbon, injury and death are omitted. Stress does not directly imply red leaves.

FAO-56 method reference (opens in a new tab)
Earlier field visits (read-only)

One tree, the same viewpoint.

Red maple (Acer rubrum) is a candidate. A specific tree, species identification, safe access and teacher approval are still needed. The teaching model’s coefficients are not red-maple measurements.

  1. Choose a safely reachable tree with your teacher. Assign a non-identifying alias, such as School tree A.
  2. Use the same branch, camera position and scale reference. Do not cut, climb or mark the tree without permission.
  3. Check buds, unfolded leaves, colored leaves and falling leaves separately. Several events can overlap. “Not observed” is different from “no.”
  4. Record what is visible first, then your explanation. Keep an original dated photo separately and give it a reference here.
  5. Revisit weekly, more often near a transition if safe. Record missed visits; arrange a summer handover.

Worked example · invented: “On the same twig, a pale leaf edge is visible between bud scales; last week the scales were closed.” Record the visible evidence. “Warm weather caused it” is an explanation to investigate.

Real observations from another year can be compared for inquiry, but they do not validate the 2025 temperature counterfactual. New visits are recorded in Field observation or in the Warmer-year notebook above; the visits saved here stay readable.

Read the species-specific USA-NPN definitions (opens in a new tab)

No earlier visit is saved in this notebook.

Every day’s numbers (NOAA)

Source: NOAA GHCN-Daily station USW00013739 (opens in a new tab). Pinned on 2026-10-02; dataset 3.35-upd-2026093018. Nonblank quality-failure flags and missing values are rejected. Trace precipitation retains its flag, even when recorded as zero.

“Midpoint” means (low + high) / 2, not an observed daily mean. Station date labels and reporting windows are retained; this is not an hourly replay. Solid temperature values are derived from observations; water and canopy values are model estimates.

2025 daily record · scroll for all 365 days
DateLow °CHigh °CPrecip. mmModel water mmModel canopy %
2025-01-013.910.00.0119.580.0
2025-01-021.76.10.0119.460.0
2025-01-03-1.02.20.3119.670.0
2025-01-04-2.70.00.0119.600.0
2025-01-05-5.50.00.0119.510.0
2025-01-06-4.3-1.02.8119.430.0
2025-01-07-7.11.10.0119.320.0
2025-01-08-5.5-0.50.0119.230.0
2025-01-09-6.61.10.0119.120.0
2025-01-10-3.82.80.0119.000.0
2025-01-11-2.71.10.5118.950.0
2025-01-12-2.76.10.0119.840.0
2025-01-13-1.67.20.0119.670.0
2025-01-14-4.31.70.0119.560.0
2025-01-15-5.51.10.0119.440.0
2025-01-16-7.1-1.60.5119.350.0
2025-01-17-4.36.70.0119.670.0
2025-01-18-2.75.60.8119.840.0
2025-01-19-4.93.95.1119.850.0
2025-01-20-10.5-3.20.0119.760.0
2025-01-21-12.1-7.10.0119.710.0
2025-01-22-11.6-6.60.0119.650.0
2025-01-23-11.6-2.70.0119.550.0
2025-01-24-8.21.10.0119.420.0
2025-01-25-8.22.20.0119.270.0
2025-01-26-3.25.60.0119.820.0
2025-01-27-4.97.80.0119.780.0
2025-01-28-1.07.20.0119.590.0
2025-01-29-1.611.70.0119.330.0
2025-01-30-1.65.60.0119.150.0
2025-01-312.210.613.7119.770.0
2025-02-01-4.910.00.5119.740.0
2025-02-02-7.13.30.3119.570.0
2025-02-03-2.111.10.0119.600.0
2025-02-040.010.00.0119.350.0
2025-02-05-0.52.8Trace (0)119.230.0
2025-02-06-0.53.97.1119.860.0
2025-02-07-2.17.80.0119.630.0
2025-02-08-3.21.76.1119.870.0
2025-02-09-0.53.9Trace (0)119.850.0
2025-02-10-1.65.00.0119.820.0
2025-02-11-2.72.87.1119.850.0
2025-02-12-1.02.24.6119.880.0
2025-02-131.79.41.8119.760.0
2025-02-14-1.63.30.0119.600.0
2025-02-15-2.14.410.2119.810.0
2025-02-161.715.013.7119.630.0
2025-02-17-2.13.30.0119.460.0
2025-02-18-6.6-2.10.0119.350.0
2025-02-19-8.8-1.00.0119.200.0
2025-02-20-7.1-2.10.3119.090.0
2025-02-21-4.93.30.0118.890.0
2025-02-22-6.05.00.0118.650.0
2025-02-23-3.29.40.0118.640.0
2025-02-24-2.112.80.0118.260.0
2025-02-252.815.00.0117.860.0
2025-02-261.716.10.0117.420.0
2025-02-275.612.20.5117.620.0
2025-02-282.811.10.0117.310.0
2025-03-01-1.618.90.0116.770.0
2025-03-02-6.62.80.0116.560.0
2025-03-03-4.35.00.0116.300.0
2025-03-04-1.617.20.0115.790.0
2025-03-059.416.739.1119.610.0
2025-03-062.813.90.0119.200.0
2025-03-071.711.70.0118.840.0
2025-03-083.310.6Trace (0)118.520.0
2025-03-09-1.013.30.0118.080.0
2025-03-103.320.00.0117.490.0
2025-03-111.720.00.0116.890.0
2025-03-124.417.80.0116.360.0
2025-03-133.313.90.0115.930.0
2025-03-145.616.70.0115.440.0
2025-03-155.012.80.0115.050.0
2025-03-1610.021.113.5119.362.8
2025-03-172.216.722.6119.326.5
2025-03-180.617.80.0118.4910.0
2025-03-192.822.20.0117.3216.3
2025-03-207.222.214.7118.6724.3
2025-03-214.412.8Trace (0)117.8027.3
2025-03-223.918.3Trace (0)116.4332.4
2025-03-231.110.01.0116.5432.9
2025-03-244.412.213.0119.0235.6
2025-03-257.816.7Trace (0)117.6841.7
2025-03-263.911.10.0116.6343.8
2025-03-270.612.20.0115.3144.9
2025-03-285.617.8Trace (0)113.5350.5
2025-03-298.326.10.0110.6060.7
2025-03-307.220.00.0108.1767.8
2025-03-3110.027.832.3116.2079.4
2025-04-016.716.74.1117.5785.0
2025-04-023.313.90.5115.7588.0
2025-04-038.924.41.0112.7597.7
2025-04-0415.621.722.4117.28100.0
2025-04-059.416.70.5115.23100.0
2025-04-068.912.80.5114.00100.0
2025-04-075.010.67.1118.13100.0
2025-04-083.38.90.0116.37100.0
2025-04-090.610.00.0114.15100.0
2025-04-105.612.2Trace (0)111.98100.0
2025-04-115.68.931.5118.55100.0
2025-04-123.37.23.6118.54100.0
2025-04-135.616.70.0115.44100.0
2025-04-146.721.1Trace (0)111.55100.0
2025-04-158.920.6Trace (0)107.92100.0
2025-04-166.713.90.0105.45100.0
2025-04-172.817.20.0101.97100.0
2025-04-185.622.20.097.69100.0
2025-04-1917.226.70.093.61100.0
2025-04-2010.622.80.089.57100.0
2025-04-2110.018.9Trace (0)86.32100.0
2025-04-2211.726.70.081.47100.0
2025-04-2312.225.00.077.03100.0
2025-04-2410.026.10.072.11100.0
2025-04-2510.626.1Trace (0)67.21100.0
2025-04-2611.723.90.863.71100.0
2025-04-2710.022.20.059.59100.0
2025-04-288.323.90.054.91100.0
2025-04-2910.028.30.049.37100.0
2025-04-3013.926.7Trace (0)44.98100.0
2025-05-0112.227.20.040.70100.0
2025-05-0215.030.00.036.51100.0
2025-05-0317.829.41.034.02100.0
2025-05-0417.222.83.034.82100.0
2025-05-0516.122.8Trace (0)32.58100.0
2025-05-0616.127.20.830.44100.0
2025-05-0715.623.9Trace (0)28.23100.0
2025-05-0815.027.2Trace (0)25.65100.0
2025-05-0910.617.84.628.49100.0
2025-05-109.423.30.026.02100.0
2025-05-1112.827.80.023.41100.0
2025-05-1212.828.30.020.99100.0
2025-05-1316.721.77.126.50100.0
2025-05-1415.018.933.053.95100.0
2025-05-1517.225.00.850.70100.0
2025-05-1615.625.038.176.33100.0
2025-05-1716.730.0Trace (0)70.70100.0
2025-05-1817.825.00.066.75100.0
2025-05-1913.321.70.062.89100.0
2025-05-2010.020.60.058.82100.0
2025-05-2111.113.911.468.29100.0
2025-05-2210.613.314.280.64100.0
2025-05-2310.620.6Trace (0)76.62100.0
2025-05-2410.020.0Trace (0)72.66100.0
2025-05-2511.121.70.068.40100.0
2025-05-2611.723.90.063.63100.0
2025-05-2712.223.30.359.38100.0
2025-05-2811.715.019.676.81100.0
2025-05-2913.923.30.372.81100.0
2025-05-3017.226.122.490.66100.0
2025-05-3112.823.91.587.50100.0
2025-06-0111.121.70.083.19100.0
2025-06-0211.123.90.078.29100.0
2025-06-0313.927.80.072.69100.0
2025-06-0415.031.10.066.31100.0
2025-06-0518.930.60.060.64100.0
2025-06-0619.430.60.055.06100.0
2025-06-0720.627.24.154.98100.0
2025-06-0817.223.30.351.60100.0
2025-06-0917.223.31.049.02100.0
2025-06-1017.828.93.046.85100.0
2025-06-1119.429.40.042.32100.0
2025-06-1220.033.30.037.34100.0
2025-06-1321.128.30.034.25100.0
2025-06-1416.721.10.532.80100.0
2025-06-1515.018.37.938.85100.0
2025-06-1616.119.40.837.79100.0
2025-06-1717.226.1Trace (0)34.55100.0
2025-06-1821.130.01.532.66100.0
2025-06-1922.233.99.937.70100.0
2025-06-2019.430.00.033.91100.0
2025-06-2122.232.80.030.27100.0
2025-06-2223.931.10.327.87100.0
2025-06-2325.037.20.024.40100.0
2025-06-2426.738.30.021.36100.0
2025-06-2525.037.23.321.60100.0
2025-06-2618.933.32.321.01100.0
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